There is a lot of class conflict in this. In the upper class milieus where these statements are made, the white people have never been in a situation where violent crime is a reality.
For example, "the talk" supposed to be some kind of "black only" phenomenon. Really? I grew up in a working class immigrant neighborhood where everyone knew that you don't fuck with the cops. Even if you don't respect the badge, you respect the gun - just one mistake can cost you your life.
There's no evidence that 72% of Black Americans oppose defunding the police, that number is for poll respondents of all demographics. If you actually look at the poll itself, you'll see that 37% oppose defunding the police, 35% are neutral, and 28% are in support of it.
I should also point out that the question isn't whether or not the respondent wants to defund the police, but rather: 'Do you support or oppose the movement known as “defund the police?”'
I don't know how much you care about being super accurate on your Substack (don't mean this as a jab, genuine disclaimer), but you should probably alter that quote if you do.
It's also probably worth updating your priors if you really think 72% of Black Americans would oppose defunding the police.
Police will naturally react by backing off enforcement --this is already happening--and the gangbangers will run free. The elite are overplaying their hand, but won't suffer the worst consequences. But they may get a shock in the 2022 election.
1) I am 100% sure if you ask the average older black person (lets say over 50) in an urban or rural area what "defunds the police" means, they can't answer or they take it literally meaning "get rid of the police department or cut their funding in half or something". So yes, they are certainly against that on average. Defund the Police, like Microaggression, and Black Lives Matter are terrible terms/slogans. They are far too easy to be misinterpreted. "Restructure the Police", Racialized Speech, Black Lives Matter Also are far better.
2) You can want police protection in an urban area and at the same time want some reforms. Razib is old enough to remember the song "911 is a Joke" by Public Enemy. That song was literally about police an paramedics not doing anything or coming too late in emergencies situations in poor majority black (and Latino) urban areas. That song came out in 1990. 2 years earlier Fuck da Police by NWA dropped. They were both serious hits in the pre-Mainstream hiphop community. So which is it? Do they want more cops to be more responsive or do they hate cops for brutality? One can both not want to be brutalized by police or harassed and also want cops to show up when you call them (notice I didn't mention fatale shootings). Those things are not mutually exclusive. Wanting reform does not mean you are necessarily anti-police.
3) Razib brought up a point that is not spoken about enough. We often say "police police whites differently than blacks" even when their socio-economic level is the same.
Yes, but poor blacks usually live in high crime, high gun violence, urban areas. Poor whites usually live in rural areas, where crime might be higher than a middle class suburb, it is not perceived in a way that makes one walk around as if they are in warzone with a heightened threat perception. So although I believe there is a racial component, having lived as a black American mostly in majority white suburbs, I think that the police are first, not as commonly seen, and when they do show up they are less on edge.
This to me speaks to a need in high crime urban areas for mandatory police duty rotations to avoid things like PTSD, more mandatory psychological services for police, more pay for police, and better uniform vetting of police (psychologically and background wise). I fully support a "bad cop database". I also support cops not being called to mental health issues if the person is not reported to be violent. I support body cameras.
My job puts me on the front line of all this madness, so I'm a bit more personally invested in the decline of law and order than most, though I think as it touches more and more people first-hand, I think folks will come to their senses.
For example, in the recent round of budget cuts on our campus, the student leadership put forth a motion to have the security department defunded (I'm a campus cop, I guess). This was soundly nixed by the rest of the leadership councils not because they aren't bleeding hearts, but because most of the faculty and staff have had encounters with the mentally ill and drug addicted homeless wandering in from the park across the street, and can't handle being aggressively panhandled or the presence of a guy shouting nonsense while covered in his own waste. The real cops aren't going to do a quick response for non-violent/non-threatening behaviors, so it comes down to us.
If I am to speak in parables as our host does, let me say this about the new faith. It demands all new believers eventually submit to circumcision. Right now, the believers loudly proclaim their baptism, but sooner or later the time will come when giving up the inch of flesh is required. Will the priests make accommodations for the pagans, or will they stick to the faith as it was originally revealed?
I lived in NYC 1975 to 1985. Life was nasty brutish and short. That other 70s favorite, Inflation is coming back too. Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it, and the rest of us must repeat it with them.
For the comfortable white neighbor, violent life changing and life ending crimes aren't visceral. That puts a hard ceiling on analyses and proposed solutions.
Might be outside scope of this article but I was just wondering what you meant by your tweet re friends (5/3/2021)? Do you mean things get attenuated easily over time mainly due to cowardice deriving from associational shame re political stances. Or are there other associational embarrassment aspects to what you mean (e.g. can think of cringe life troubles, addiction, moving in weird social circles). Thanks for clarifying in advance! Just that from my personal vantage point I tend to separate out my doomer views from social occasions unless the other person is likely to agree. Life is too short to push people away even if they are principles. Cheers, Razib!
There is a lot of class conflict in this. In the upper class milieus where these statements are made, the white people have never been in a situation where violent crime is a reality.
For example, "the talk" supposed to be some kind of "black only" phenomenon. Really? I grew up in a working class immigrant neighborhood where everyone knew that you don't fuck with the cops. Even if you don't respect the badge, you respect the gun - just one mistake can cost you your life.
Reading Ayaan Hirsi Ali's new book "Prey." She went off. It's a shitposter's must read of the year.
She talks about this same concept of costless gestures in regard to elite PC culture resulting in the literal rape of lower income women.
There's no evidence that 72% of Black Americans oppose defunding the police, that number is for poll respondents of all demographics. If you actually look at the poll itself, you'll see that 37% oppose defunding the police, 35% are neutral, and 28% are in support of it.
I should also point out that the question isn't whether or not the respondent wants to defund the police, but rather: 'Do you support or oppose the movement known as “defund the police?”'
I don't know how much you care about being super accurate on your Substack (don't mean this as a jab, genuine disclaimer), but you should probably alter that quote if you do.
It's also probably worth updating your priors if you really think 72% of Black Americans would oppose defunding the police.
Police will naturally react by backing off enforcement --this is already happening--and the gangbangers will run free. The elite are overplaying their hand, but won't suffer the worst consequences. But they may get a shock in the 2022 election.
I think there are some things missing here....
1) I am 100% sure if you ask the average older black person (lets say over 50) in an urban or rural area what "defunds the police" means, they can't answer or they take it literally meaning "get rid of the police department or cut their funding in half or something". So yes, they are certainly against that on average. Defund the Police, like Microaggression, and Black Lives Matter are terrible terms/slogans. They are far too easy to be misinterpreted. "Restructure the Police", Racialized Speech, Black Lives Matter Also are far better.
2) You can want police protection in an urban area and at the same time want some reforms. Razib is old enough to remember the song "911 is a Joke" by Public Enemy. That song was literally about police an paramedics not doing anything or coming too late in emergencies situations in poor majority black (and Latino) urban areas. That song came out in 1990. 2 years earlier Fuck da Police by NWA dropped. They were both serious hits in the pre-Mainstream hiphop community. So which is it? Do they want more cops to be more responsive or do they hate cops for brutality? One can both not want to be brutalized by police or harassed and also want cops to show up when you call them (notice I didn't mention fatale shootings). Those things are not mutually exclusive. Wanting reform does not mean you are necessarily anti-police.
3) Razib brought up a point that is not spoken about enough. We often say "police police whites differently than blacks" even when their socio-economic level is the same.
Yes, but poor blacks usually live in high crime, high gun violence, urban areas. Poor whites usually live in rural areas, where crime might be higher than a middle class suburb, it is not perceived in a way that makes one walk around as if they are in warzone with a heightened threat perception. So although I believe there is a racial component, having lived as a black American mostly in majority white suburbs, I think that the police are first, not as commonly seen, and when they do show up they are less on edge.
This to me speaks to a need in high crime urban areas for mandatory police duty rotations to avoid things like PTSD, more mandatory psychological services for police, more pay for police, and better uniform vetting of police (psychologically and background wise). I fully support a "bad cop database". I also support cops not being called to mental health issues if the person is not reported to be violent. I support body cameras.
You can walk these things and not be anti-cop.
My job puts me on the front line of all this madness, so I'm a bit more personally invested in the decline of law and order than most, though I think as it touches more and more people first-hand, I think folks will come to their senses.
For example, in the recent round of budget cuts on our campus, the student leadership put forth a motion to have the security department defunded (I'm a campus cop, I guess). This was soundly nixed by the rest of the leadership councils not because they aren't bleeding hearts, but because most of the faculty and staff have had encounters with the mentally ill and drug addicted homeless wandering in from the park across the street, and can't handle being aggressively panhandled or the presence of a guy shouting nonsense while covered in his own waste. The real cops aren't going to do a quick response for non-violent/non-threatening behaviors, so it comes down to us.
If I am to speak in parables as our host does, let me say this about the new faith. It demands all new believers eventually submit to circumcision. Right now, the believers loudly proclaim their baptism, but sooner or later the time will come when giving up the inch of flesh is required. Will the priests make accommodations for the pagans, or will they stick to the faith as it was originally revealed?
I lived in NYC 1975 to 1985. Life was nasty brutish and short. That other 70s favorite, Inflation is coming back too. Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it, and the rest of us must repeat it with them.
For the comfortable white neighbor, violent life changing and life ending crimes aren't visceral. That puts a hard ceiling on analyses and proposed solutions.
Might be outside scope of this article but I was just wondering what you meant by your tweet re friends (5/3/2021)? Do you mean things get attenuated easily over time mainly due to cowardice deriving from associational shame re political stances. Or are there other associational embarrassment aspects to what you mean (e.g. can think of cringe life troubles, addiction, moving in weird social circles). Thanks for clarifying in advance! Just that from my personal vantage point I tend to separate out my doomer views from social occasions unless the other person is likely to agree. Life is too short to push people away even if they are principles. Cheers, Razib!